Reflections: 2020 Democratic Debates, Round 2

Here we go again, the news outlets have all declared their winners and losers, but winning the debate doesn’t necessarily translate to winning voters. So here we go, let’s take a look at where each candidate fell on the the spectrum of “see ya later” to “see you in the primaries”.

Thanks for playing, now quit wasting our time

• Marianne Williamson has a no policy stance and about as much substance to match. She’s entertaining to watch, but we already have that in Donald Trump so if she’s not going to offer any real reasons for America to stand behind her, then it’s time for her to get out of the way.
• Tim Ryan got slapped so hard by Bernie, twice, that he might need to vote for him just so he can qualify for a comprehensive enough medical plan to fix the damage. Unfortunately for him, Bernie “wrote the damn bill” so hopefully there isn’t an exception written in there somewhere.
• John Delaney, like Ryan, may have just committed the political analog to “death by cop” having ignored Bernie’s first warning barely 10 minutes into the debate reminding him “You’re wrong” with great detail on medicare. He then for some reason thought it was a good idea to keep talking and subsequently got smacked down by Elizabeth Warren who called him out for the opportunistic coward that he is. Sidenote, does anyone else get the suspicion his advisors told him not to smile?
• Tulsi Gabbard made Kamala Harris faceplant harder than a skater with a busted wheel going over a stick in the road. Unfortunately for Gabbard, that was her only moment during the night and is likely why despite being the most searched candidate after the debate (again), she is still on track for failing to qualify for the next debate. It probably doesn’t help that much of her other talking points were stolen from other candidates, but at least Marianne Williamson can now rest assured someone was listening to her.
• Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Jay Inslee, and Michael Bennett: sure some of them turned in good talking points, but unless you watch the replay or look up their highlights, it’s not likely you remember any of them. Too little, too late.

Keep working that Cabinet angle

• Amy Klobuchar like Mayor Pete kept her head beneath the foray lobbied against Senators Sanders and Warren. She said her piece, but didn’t really make any major waves. Perhaps she’s playing it safe until the fodder fall off as they fail to qualify for the remaining debates.
• Beto O’Rourke continued to try to recreate a moment like the one that elevated him to the national spotlight in the first place, but just couldn’t quite make it happen. He’s still sounding good for press secretary though.
• John Hickenlooper just has something about him that I still can’t quite work out. Future Head of the EPA or SBA perhaps? He has near zero chance of swaying voters from the top contenders and yet he still somehow feels relevant. For now, I’ll just have to join Bernie and throw up my arms.
• Kirsten Gillibrand made a case that she’s a real deal, just not for the top job. She was certainly better this round in delivering a message with some resonance to it. I’m almost tempted to say she is a hail mary pass away from sticking with the top contenders except 1) she basically outlined why she would be a great choice for HHS Secretary, and 2) Elizabeth Warren is still in the race.
• Andrew Yang swung late but swung hard. Commerce secretary? Ok probably not. Actually he probably won’t make any one’s shortlist for any position, but after his closing speech, he finally left me wanting to hear more.

Maybe with a Hail Mary

• Julian Castro definitely stepped up and had some good moments. He showed that, except for Biden, no one on that stage is as knowledgeable about relevant policies as he is. But even against Biden, Castro made his case that while he and Biden worked in the same administration, and Biden has a longer political tenure, only one of them “has learned the lessons of the past” and intends to make adjustments going forward. Having already met the donor criteria, if his supporters can get better represented by the polling agencies, he might just have the chance to finally break through at the next debate; otherwise he’s looking at going back to the Cabinet.
• Cory Booker did well, quite well in fact, but he still hasn’t hit the home run that he needed; and no, the (accidental) endorsement from Biden wasn’t it either. His prospects don’t look great, but it’s fairly early and he made clear Wednesday night that he still has some cards up his sleave.
• Kamala Harris not only failed to build on her momentum from the first debate. Like Biden before her, she seemed to take her frontrunner status for granted and failed to prepare for the inevitable attacks coming her way. If she takes another hit like she did Wednesday from Tulsi Gabbard without responding akin to Bernie’s Hulk-like fashion, she’s going to have a hard time continuing to convince people she is the one to “prosecute the case against Donald Trump” in 2020.

See you in the primaries

• Joe Biden: Yes, he forgot what year (and for that matter, millenium) he is campaigning for. Yes, he endorsed Cory Booker. And yes, he spent some of his abundant air time campaigning for Obama. But Biden is no stranger to gaffes and he will survive these ones just as he has the many many that have come before. His lead will likely take another hit in the polls, but not enough to end his run early. If he doesn’t get his act together soon though, he may have a hard time making it past South Carolina because his rope-a-dope strategy may allow him to outlast Castro and Booker, but he needs to still have some fight left if he hopes keep his edge over Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris.
• Bernie Sanders clearly learned from Joe Biden’s mistake in the first debate and was not going to coast on his momentum a second time. He knows Warren and Buttigieg aren’t dropping out anytime soon and going after them would be a mistake anyway since they are largely in agreement. Instead, Sanders did us all a favor by baiting the lesser participants into attacking his policies so he could deliver what will hopefully be decisive blows to their pointless campaigns.
• Pete Buttigieg stayed composed, on message, and escaped the battle box cleaner than he entered it; literally. While the other candidates (minus Amy Klobuchar) tried to have a Kamala Harris moment going after the most senior senators on stage, Mayor Pete continued to deliver well-thought out, comprehensive plans in the most sensible tone of any candidate thus far. It doesn’t hurt that he’s pulling in more money than all of the other candidates, including the four still polling ahead of him.
• Elizabeth Warren continues to enjoy a high favorability rating and in this debate she showed why. She also stepped up to be the star she failed to be in the first debate, particularly when she exposed John Delaney for his lack of purpose. I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets a little bump in the polls from this performance, but even without it, she is already well on her way to Iowa and beyond.